A few days ago, Chris mentioned the possibility that the Democrats would lose Barack Obama's former Senate seat. I'm certainly a long term, and somewhat nauseated, observer of Illinois politics. I don't know that my thoughts are worth a hill of beans. That won't stop me.
- History. The critical event in recent Illinois politics was the 1972 election for governor. The Heffalump incumbent, Richard Ogilvie, was probably the best governor Illinois has had in the post war era, if by "best" we mean, "someone who actually tried to deal with problems." His term saw a state constitutional convention, the establishment of the Regional Transportation Authority to fund and manage public transit in the Chicago area, and (ominous music) the imposition of a state income tax. Oopsie. The state income tax was, shall we say, unpopular. Ogilvie was defeated for reelection by Dan Walker, an incredible buffoon who indulged himself in the fantasy that a Democratic governor could govern without reference and deference to the Mayor of Chicago, Richard I. What Illinois politicians learned from Ogilvie's defeat was Do As Little As Possible. The effect on Illinois has been calamitous. Our politicians refuse to restrain spending, and refuse to take any steps to revenue reform or tax increase. Sound familiar? Yes, the country elected a president from this tradition. You can't do both, but magical accounting puts off the day of reckoning.
- Mark Kirk is an electable Republican in the current climate. He's not an ideological purist, but he's sound on defense policy. He's been an officer in the Navy Reserve, and is pretty reasonable about fiscal matters. Perfect according to some strict notion of conservative purity? No. Electable? Yes. The Donks haven't come up with a compelling candidate yet, and I don't see any on the horizon. I suspect that they would rather have a good shot at Kirk's seat in the House.
- The 2004 senatorial election here was the weirdest election I have ever witnessed. The public destruction of Obama's opponents, first in the Donk primary election, then in the general election, was astonishing to behold. Jack Ryan, the Heffalump candidate, was never popular within the party, and as the faux-scandal about his divorce grew, it became obvious to him that the other Heffalumps would give him no support. Massive amounts of blame-the-victim were applied, and he understandably withdrew. No electable Heffalump was about to step up, given the destructions of Ryan and of Blair Hull, Obama's chief opponent in the Donk primary.
- There's some degree of sense that we are poorly governed. Duh. Whether that sense can be galvanized into a throw-out-the-bums movement can't be guessed. Richard II's greatest accomplishment may have been the creation of a sense of inevitability. "We may be bad, but you know we're going to win. Make the best of it."